Realism and the Conflict in the South China Sea

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea are an issue of significant concern for the South East Asian region, particularly for members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).  Employing realism as a means to understand the ongoing conflict in the region is particularly pertinent. This is because the tensions in the region are fundamentally based upon the attainment of natural resources and the consequent expansion of power, state survival and the preservation of national security.

Countries involved in the territorial dispute

The South China Sea is rich in oil and natural gas, with the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggesting that the South China Sea contains approximately 11 million barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The South China Sea is a critical world trade route that is of significant strategic and political importance.  Several countries bordering the sea declare ownership over areas of the South China Sea, thus resulting in a series of territorial disputes in the region. These countries include China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Indonesia. In recent years, tensions in the South China Sea have begun to escalate, particularly between China, Vietnam and the Philippines. It can be argued that these countries have employed a realist stance in their management of their interests in the South China Sea, as these countries, most notably China and Vietnam, must engage in competition for resources and power within the region. 

South China Sea Maritime Dispute

China argues that they have a historical claim over the sea and islands in the area. This claim is based upon the ‘nine-dotted’ line map which claims sovereignty over the majority of the South China Sea. As such, China argues that they have the right to preserve the status quo on the basis of their historical claim to the sea. These claims are fiercely refuted by the countries involved in the dispute, particularly Vietnam. China has taken increasingly provocative actions in the area by increasing Peoples Liberation Army Navy patrols in the area, as well as seizing fishing boats in the contested waters.

China's power in the region

China is the most assertive actor in the region due to its economic power. As such, China’s claim of sovereignty over some areas of the South China Sea is particularly problematic for the countries involved, due to China’s economic dominance and consequent power in the region. Furthermore, China has stated that their territorial claims in the South China Sea are a ‘core interest’ of their country, alongside the Taiwan issue. Colonel Geng Yansheng has stated that China has “undisputable sovereignty” in the South China Sea and this has alarmed countries in the region. 

A realist assessment would suggest that the countries that are involved in the dispute in the South China Sea are engaging in fierce competition for resources and subsequently state survival. This has necessarily resulted in a struggle for power among nations, given the immense resources available in the South China Sea, as well as the importance of the South China Sea as a crucial world trade route. As such, the countries involved must engage in this competition in order to ensure state survival.

Whilst some may call upon the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (and indeed, some have, notably Malaysia and the Philippines) as a means to mitigate the numerous territorial claims in the region, a realist would dismiss any such action as futile. This is because states operate in an anarchical environment, whereby there is no overarching authority to govern the behaviour of states. As such, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is significantly constrained as it has very limited power to enforce its rules, even though all the countries involved in the conflict have signed the third UNCLOS. 

South China Sea territorial claims Country	South China Sea	Spratly Islands	Paracel Islands	Gulf of Thailand
Brunei	UNCLOS	no formal claim	no	-
Cambodia	-	-	-	UNCLOS
China	all*	all	all	-
Indonesia	UNCLOS	no	no	-
Malaysia	UNCLOS	3 islands	no	UNCLOS
Philippines	significant portions	8 islands	no	-
Taiwan	all*	all	all	-
Thailand	-	-	-	UNCLOS
Vietnam	all*	all	all	UNCLOS
* excluding buffer zone along littoral states (calculations for buffer unknown) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

State survival is the most important aspect in an anarchical environment. As such, states mistrust each other and therefore try to maximise their own power, thus resulting in a security dilemma.

The recent Ukrainian Crisis and in particular, America’s management thereof, has led some countries involved in the conflict in the South China Sea to question the extent to which the United States would provide assistance to the region, should China escalate tensions in the region. Given China’s immense power in the region, both in terms of economic power and military might, smaller countries that are involved in the dispute may turn to a stronger power, in this case the United States, in an attempt to provide security to the region and to balance against China’s dominance.