Realism and the Conflict in the South China Sea
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea are an
issue of significant concern for the South East Asian region, particularly for
members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Employing realism as a means to understand the
ongoing conflict in the region is particularly pertinent. This is because the
tensions in the region are fundamentally based upon the attainment of natural
resources and the consequent expansion of power, state survival and the
preservation of national security.
Countries involved in the territorial dispute |
The South China Sea is rich in oil and natural gas,
with the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggesting that the South
China Sea contains approximately 11 million barrels of oil and 190 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas. The South China Sea is a critical world trade route
that is of significant strategic and political importance. Several countries bordering the sea declare
ownership over areas of the South China Sea, thus resulting in a series of
territorial disputes in the region. These countries include China, Taiwan,
Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Indonesia. In recent years, tensions
in the South China Sea have begun to escalate, particularly between China,
Vietnam and the Philippines. It can be argued that these countries
have employed a realist stance in their management of their interests in the
South China Sea, as these countries, most notably China and Vietnam, must
engage in competition for resources and power within the region.
South China Sea Maritime Dispute |
China argues that they have a historical claim over
the sea and islands in the area. This claim is based upon the ‘nine-dotted’ line
map which claims sovereignty over the majority of the South China Sea. As such,
China argues that they have the right to preserve the status quo on the basis
of their historical claim to the sea. These claims are fiercely refuted by the
countries involved in the dispute, particularly Vietnam. China has taken
increasingly provocative actions in the area by increasing Peoples Liberation
Army Navy patrols in the area, as well as seizing fishing boats in the
contested waters.
China's power in the region |
China is the most assertive actor in the region due
to its economic power. As such, China’s claim of sovereignty over some areas of
the South China Sea is particularly problematic for the countries involved, due
to China’s economic dominance and consequent power in the region. Furthermore,
China has stated that their territorial claims in the South China Sea are a ‘core
interest’ of their country, alongside the Taiwan issue. Colonel Geng Yansheng
has stated that China has “undisputable sovereignty” in the South China Sea and
this has alarmed countries in the region.
Whilst some
may call upon the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (and indeed,
some have, notably Malaysia and the Philippines) as a means to mitigate the
numerous territorial claims in the region, a realist would dismiss any such
action as futile. This is because states operate in an anarchical environment,
whereby there is no overarching authority to govern the behaviour of states. As
such, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is significantly
constrained as it has very limited power to enforce its rules, even though all
the countries involved in the conflict have signed the third UNCLOS.
Country
|
South China Sea
|
Spratly Islands
|
Paracel Islands
|
Gulf of Thailand
|
Brunei
|
UNCLOS
|
no formal claim
|
no
|
-
|
Cambodia
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
UNCLOS
|
China
|
all*
|
all
|
all
|
-
|
Indonesia
|
UNCLOS
|
no
|
no
|
-
|
Malaysia
|
UNCLOS
|
3 islands
|
no
|
UNCLOS
|
Philippines
|
significant portions
|
8 islands
|
no
|
-
|
Taiwan
|
all*
|
all
|
all
|
-
|
Thailand
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
UNCLOS
|
Vietnam
|
all*
|
all
|
all
|
UNCLOS
|
* excluding buffer zone along
littoral states (calculations for buffer unknown)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration |
State survival is the most important aspect in an
anarchical environment. As such, states mistrust each other and therefore try
to maximise their own power, thus resulting in a security dilemma.
The recent Ukrainian Crisis and in particular,
America’s management thereof, has led some countries involved in the conflict
in the South China Sea to question the extent to which the United States would
provide assistance to the region, should China escalate tensions in the region.
Given China’s immense power in the region, both in terms of economic power and
military might, smaller countries that are involved in the dispute may turn to
a stronger power, in this case the United States, in an attempt to provide security
to the region and to balance against China’s dominance.
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